Abstract Poisson distribution is a popular discrete model used to describe counting information, from which traditional control charts involving count data, such as the c and u charts, have been established in the literature. However, several studies recognize the need for alternative control charts that allow for data overdispersion, which can be encountered in many fields, including ecology, healthcare, industry, and others. The Bell distribution, recently proposed by Castellares et al. (2018), is a particular solution of a multiple Poisson process able to accommodate overdispersed data. It can be used as an alternative to the usual Poisson (which, although not nested in the Bell family, is approached for small values of the Bell distribution) Poisson, negative binomial, and COM-Poisson distributions for modeling count data in several areas. In this paper, we consider the Bell distribution to introduce two new exciting, and useful statistical control charts for counting processes, which are capable of monitoring count data with overdispersion. The performance of the so-called Bell charts, namely Bell-c and Bell-u charts, is evaluated by the average run length in numerical simulation. Some artificial and real data sets are used to illustrate the applicability of the proposed control charts.

Resumen En este artículo, discutimos varias propiedades matemáticas y métodos de estimación para una versión reparametrizada de la distribución ponderada de Lindley (RWL). La distribución RWL puede ser particularmente útil para modelar datos de confiabilidad (supervivencia) con función de tasa de riesgo en forma de bañera o creciente. El procedimiento inferencial para obtener las estimaciones de los parámetros se realiza mediante el enfoque de máxima verosimilitud considerando la censura aleatoria a la derecha. Se realizan extensas simulaciones numéricas para investigar y evaluar el rendimiento del método de estimación propuesto. Finalmente, la utilidad del modelo RWL se analiza mediante el uso de dos conjuntos de datos reales.

Abstract In this paper, we discuss several mathematical properties and estimation methods for a reparameterized version of the weighted Lindley (RWL) distribution. The RWL distribution can be particularly useful for modeling reliability (survival) data with bathtub-shaped or increasing hazard rate function. The inferential procedure to obtain the parameter estimates is conducted via the maximum likelihood approach considering random right-censoring. Extensive numerical simulations are carried out to investigate and evaluate the performance of the proposed estimation method. Finally, the potentiality of the RWL model is analyzed by employing two real data sets.

Abstract The gamma distribution has been extensively used in many areas of applications. In this paper, considering a Bayesian analysis we provide necessary and sufficient conditions to check whether or not improper priors lead to proper posterior distributions. Further, we also discuss sufficient conditions to verify if the obtained posterior moments are finite. An interesting aspect of our findings are that one can check if the posterior is proper or improper and also if its posterior moments are finite by looking directly in the behavior of the proposed improper prior. To illustrate our proposed methodology these results are applied in different objective priors.

Resumo: O presente estudo teve como objetivo analisar os fatores associados às falhas dos equipamentos da colheitadeira de cana-de-açúcar, cujas máquinas têm grande importância no processo de colheita e nos custos envolvidos. Parte dos dados foi originalmente fornecida por uma empresa localizada no interior de São Paulo, de duas máquinas, coletadas de janeiro de 2015 a agosto de 2017, correspondendo a 2,5 culturas. O conjunto geral de dados foi obtido de três fontes diferentes: um sistema de rastreamento de parada, que fornece o rastreamento de um histórico de manutenção preventiva e corretiva do equipamento analisado; dados de telemetria do equipamento, capturados através de sistemas de computador embarcados, instalados no tipo de máquina em estudo, que fornecem informações sobre sua operação; e dados meteorológicos do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia do Brasil. Análises multivariadas foram usadas, como componentes principais e modelos de regressão múltipla, criando, assim, um modelo de previsão considerando a próxima interrupção do equipamento e apontando as causas de falhas no processo. Assim, os resultados apontam para algumas melhorias relacionadas ao esquema de confiabilidade individualizado, a fim de reduzir o número de paradas corretivas dadas ao equipamento.

Abstract: The present study aimed to analyze factors associated with the equipment failures of the sugarcane harvester, whose machineries has high importance in the harvest process and cost involved. Part of the data was originally provided by a company located in the countryside of Sao Paulo State, from two machines, collected from January 2015 to August 2017, corresponding to 2.5 crops. The overall dataset was obtained from three different sources: a stop-tracking system, which provides the track of a preventive and corrective maintenance historical of the analyzed equipment; telemetry data of the equipment, captured through embedded computer systems, installed in the machine’ type under study, which provide information on its operation; and meteorological data from the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology. Multivariate analyzes were used such as principal components and multiple regression models, therefore creating a model for prediction considering the next equipment’ break, then pointing to causes of process failures. Thus, the results point to some improvements concerned with individualized reliability scheme in order to reduce the number of corrective stops given the equipment.

ABSTRACT In this paper, a new software for Statistical Process Control (SPC) is proposed. The system, the so-called CEP Online, was developed based on statistical computing resources of well-known free softwares, such as HTML, PHP, R and MySQL under an online server with operating system Linux Ubuntu. The main uni and multivariate SPC tools are available for monitoring and evaluation of manufacturing and non-manufacturing production processes over time. Some advantages of the new software are: (i) low operational cost, since it is cloud-based, only needing a computer connected to the Internet; (ii) easy to use with great interaction with the user; (iii) it does not require investment in any specific hardware or software; (iv) real time reports generation on process condition monitoring and process capability. Thus, the CEP Online offers for SPC practitioners fast, efficient and accurate SPC procedures. Therefore, CEP Online becomes an important resource for those who have no access to non-free softwares, such as SAS, SPSS, Minitab and STATISTICA. To the best of our knowledge, the CEP Online is unique with respect to its characteristics.

Abstract: In this paper, we revisit the Wilson-Hilferty distribution and presented its mathematical properties such as the r-th moments and reliability properties. The parameters estimators are discussed using objective reference Bayesian analysis for both complete and censored data where the resulting marginal posterior intervals have accurate frequentist coverage. A simulation study is presented to compare the performance of the proposed estimators with the frequentist approach where it is observed a clear advantage for the Bayesian method. Finally, the proposed methodology is illustrated on three real datasets.

ABSTRACT In this paper we present the development of a modulated web based statistical system, hereafter MWStat, which shifts the statistical paradigm of analyzing data into a real time structure. The MWStat system is useful for both online storage data and questionnaires analysis, as well as to provide real time disposal of results from analysis related to several statistical methodologies in a customizable fashion. Overall, it can be seem as a useful technical solution that can be applied to a large range of statistical applications, which needs of a scheme of devolution of real time results, accessible to anyone with internet access. We display here the step-by-step instructions for implementing the system. The structure is accessible, built with an easily interpretable language and it can be strategically applied to online statistical applications. We rely on the relationship of several free languages, namely, PHP, R, MySQL database and an Apache HTTP server, and on the use of software tools such as phpMyAdmin. We expose three didactical examples of the MWStat system on institutional evaluation, statistical quality control and multivariate analysis. The methodology is also illustrated in a real example on institutional evaluation. A MWStat module was specifically built for providing a real time poll for teacher evaluation at the Federal University of São Carlos (Brazil).

Resumen En este estudio evaluamos la eficiencia de los jugadores de voleibol de acuerdo con su desempeño de ataque, bloqueo y servicio, teniendo en cuenta la estructura composicional de los datos relacionados con los fundamentos de este deporte. Así, consideramos un modelo de regresión de mixtura finita para datos composicionales. La estimación de máxima verosimilitud fue obtenida via un Algoritmo EM. Un estudio de simulación revela que los parámetros son correctamente recuperados. Adicionalmente, los estimadores son asintóticamente insesgados. Considerando dados reales del campeonato de voleyball brasileño nosotros mostramos que el modelo propuesto presenta mejor ajuste que el modelo de regresión usual.

Abstract In this paper, we consider to evaluate the efficiency of volleyball players according to your performance of attack, block and serve, considering the compositional structure of the data related to the fundaments of this sport. In this way, we consider a nite mixture of regression model to compositional data. The maximum likelihood estimation of this model was obtained via an EM algorithm. A simulation study reveals that the parameters are correctly recovery. In addition, the estimators are asymptotically unbiased. By considering real dataset of Brazilian volleyball competition, we show that the model proposed presents best fit than the usual regression model.

ABSTRACT The survival analysis was originally proposed for data analysis related to time before the occurrence of a specific event of interest and has been widely used in studies of biomedical data (survival analysis), industrial research (reliability analysis) and financial data (credit scoring). In this study, we presented a new approach to modeling the market value of urban lots based on survival analysis considering the left censoring mechanism, which allows estimating the probability for sale and the hazard associated with sales at the lot market value. The modeling is made from the survival analysis that introduces greater flexibility when compared to the usual linear models as it allows including the effectively traded lots (not censored) and lots in negotiation (censored) into the process, however, it is not enough to affirm the effective improvement of models based on the survival analysis.

ABSTRACT In this paper we propose a simulation-based method for predicting the 2010 and 2014Football World Cup. Adopting a bayesian perspective, we modeled the number of goals of two opposing teams as a Poisson distribution whose mean is proportional to the relative technical level of opponents. FIFA ratings were taken as the measure of technical level of teams and experts' opinions about scores of matches were taken to construct prior distribution of parameters. Just before each round, tournament simulations were performed in order to estimate probabilities of events of main interest for audience and bettors such as qualifying to the knockout stage, reaching semi-finals, reaching the final match, winningthe tournament, among others.

ABSTRACT In this paper, we propose a distribution that describes a specific system. The system has a heavy traffic, a fast service and the service rate depends on state of the system. This distribution we call the Maximum-Conway-Maxwell-Poisson-exponential distribution, denoted by MAXCOMPE distribution. The MAXCOMPE distribution is obtained by compound distributions in which we use the zero truncated Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution and the exponential distribution. This distribution has adjustment mechanism in order to re-establish the equilibrium of the system when the traffic flow increases and that is described by variations of the pressure parameter. Because of this, the MAXCOMPE distribution contains sub-models, such as, the Maximum-geometric-exponential distribution, the Maximum-Poisson-exponential distribution and the Maximum-Bernoulli-exponential distribution. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including formal proof of its density function and explicit algebraic formulas for their reliability function and moments. The parameter estimation is based on the usual maximum likelihood method. Simulated and real data are shown to illustrate the applicability of the model.

Statistical methods have been widely employed to assess the capabilities of credit scoring classification models in order to reduce the risk of wrong decisions when granting credit facilities to clients. The predictive quality of a classification model can be evaluated based on measures such as sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, accuracy, correlation coefficients and information theoretical measures, such as relative entropy and mutual information. In this paper we analyze the performance of a naive logistic regression model, a logistic regression with state-dependent sample selection model and a bounded logistic regression model via a large simulation study. Also, as a case study, the methodology is illustrated on a data set extracted from a Brazilian retail bank portfolio. Our simulation results so far revealed that there is nostatistically significant difference in terms of predictive capacity among the naive logistic regression models, the logistic regression with state-dependent sample selection models and the bounded logistic regression models. However, there is difference between the distributions of the estimated default probabilities from these three statistical modeling techniques, with the naive logistic regression models and the boundedlogistic regression models always underestimating such probabilities, particularly in the presence of balanced samples. Which are common in practice.

Industrial recurrent event data where an event of interest can be observed more than once in a single sample unit are presented in several areas, such as engineering, manufacturing and industrial reliability. Such type of data provide information about the number of events, time to their occurrence and also their costs. Nelson (1995) presents a methodology to obtain asymptotic confidence intervals for the cost and the number of cumulative recurrent events. Although this is a standard procedure, it can not perform well in some situations, in particular when the sample size available is small. In this context, computer-intensive methods such as bootstrap can be used to construct confidence intervals. In this paper, we propose a technique based on the bootstrap method to have interval estimates for the cost and the number of cumulative events. One of the advantages of the proposed methodology is the possibility for its application in several areas and its easy computational implementation. In addition, it can be a better alternative than asymptotic-based methods to calculate confidence intervals, according to some Monte Carlo simulations. An example from the engineering area illustrates the methodology.

O ensino da ciência estatística é obrigatório em praticamente todos os cursos de graduação das universidades brasileiras. Além disso, vários são cursos de Graduação em Estatística, distribuídos pelas várias universidades nacionais. Entretanto, apesar da importância desta ciência, não existem, na literatura nacional, estudos sistemáticos direcionados à caracterização dos docentes responsáveis pelo ensino da ciência estatística no país. Neste contexto, apresentamos, neste artigo, uma descrição de tais docentes, particularmente, no que tange aos cursos de Graduação em Estatística Esta descrição foi realizada por meio de um levantamento amostral descritivo, relacionado aos aspectos de sua formação e produção científica, sendo finalizada com a apresentação da previsão de demanda de Doutores em Estatística necessários para suprir as vagas em aberto a partir das ocorrências das aposentadorias dos docentes das Graduações em Estatística no país.

Statistics is a required course in virtually all undergraduate programs in Brazilian universities. In addition, undergraduate programs in Statistics are offered in many public universities. However, despite the importance of this science, there are no systematic studies in the national literature regarding the characterization of the faculty staff, which is responsible for the teaching of statistics in the country. In this context, this paper presents a description of the faculty members of undergraduate courses in Statistics. This description was based on a descriptive sample, related to aspects of their education and scientific production. A prediction of future demand for PhDs in Statistics to fill the vacancies is also provided based on the retirement of faculty members in undergraduate courses in Statistics in the country.

In this paper, a new family of survival distributions is presented. It is derived by considering that the latent number of failure causes follows a Poisson distribution and the time for these causes to be activated follows an exponential distribution. Three different activationschemes are also considered. Moreover, we propose the inclusion of covariates in the model formulation in order to study their effect on the expected value of the number of causes and on the failure rate function. Inferential procedure based on the maximum likelihood method is discussed and evaluated via simulation. The developed methodology is illustrated on a real data set on ovarian cancer. Mathematical subject classification: 62N01, 62N99.